tada@aicritique.org
Elon Musk says that in the future, when AI replaces humans in work, we will all lose our jobs, and he advocates “universal high income.” (Apparently, this is a different concept from basic income.)
In the future, work will be a choice rather than a duty, a form of self-expression like a hobby, but of course that won’t happen tomorrow or next year. It is quite possible that there will be a time lag until social systems fully catch up with the AI era. In other words, a catastrophe may ensue during which people’s livelihoods will not stand still. As a small citizen, the big question is how to get through that transitional period.
OpenAI advocates five levels of AI development:
- Level 1: conversational AI
- Level 2: reasoning AI
- Level 3: autonomous AI
- Level 4: innovating AI
- Level 5: organizational AI
Level 1 was the level at which ChatGPT was released two years ago, and the current o1-preview is on its way to becoming level 2, capable of logical inference. Level 3 is where the user gives the AI rough instructions and the AI can tackle tasks over several days. Current technology has not yet reached that stage, but some areas are beginning to develop AI agents that can operate PC programs such as Word and Excel.
Level 4 is the level where AI takes over research and development, and level 5 is the level where AI takes over all work for the entire organization. In other words, at this stage we barely need to work at all. Technological innovation takes a span of 10 to 20 years to develop, and it is likely to take another 10 years or so after a technology is established for it to be implemented in society.
Therefore, it will take at least 30 years for our society to move to the next stage. How will we spend those 30 years? This means we will experience 30 years of our jobs being gradually eroded by AI. However, there is still no guarantee of the quality of life that Elon Musk talks about. We are facing a time when we must seriously consider how we will live from now on.
ChatGPT
